Incredible work, the most comprehensive so far, available to someone who is in no way a professional. General Australian ignorance is astonishing; Graig makes up for some of it indeed, spectacularly. Thank you.
"Modern crops have been bred under conditions of intensive chemical defence, meaning they carry the yield ambitions of industrial agriculture without the hardiness required in an unprotected ecological contest. Or simply, they can’t grow without them."
Seems like the system was designed for fragility and designed to fail. When nature is manipulated to the point where it is no longer recognizable and unable to yield its cycles and seeds without synthetic inputs it is past the time to admit that the entire dominant approach to agriculture, an industrialized approach, has forgotten the roots of what is actually required to feed and nourish a population both big and small.
The harsh reality of failing agriculture due to lack of fertilizers is undeniable proof that those who have been tasked with managing 'global' scale of food trade were always delusional. Regenerative agriculture practices are scalable and function as closed loop systems.
This is about a shift in consciousness, understanding - farming as stewardship inseparable from ecosystem support. Food used to be the responsibility of all in one way or another. Scaling few operations to feed the many is the inverse of food security. Once food cultivation becomes broken down into equations and measurements of chemicals all that gave the food its vitality is lost. The general state of humanity is seen in this degraded, dishonorable food system. Remove the perceived need for foods from around the world and life becomes sustainable once more. Local agriculture built on local ecosystems and strengths solves many of the tensions in the food systems. Expectations around food supply and food availability are artificial and wildly disconnected from what sustenance actually is here on Earth.
The problem was created and manufactured from the beginning.
I agree with everything you say except that about regenerative agriculture. It has not proved itself at the scale of feeding millions, let alone the extra hundreds we will need to feed within the next couple decades. Now is the time to step outside of the idea that only farms can feed the masses. Rather, self-sufficiency gardens will need to be added to the mix, and they have been scaled to feed scores of millions; check out my Substack, Ultra-Local, Full Circle Self Sufficiency to see why and how this is feasible.
Not to get biblical, but the headline seems appropriate.
For anyone interested, I restacked a Paul Kingsnorth article about three wild saints and their prophecies. He's the man who had recently wrote a book about reclaiming humanity from the machine.
On a personal note, we also erected a deer fence to keep our vegetables safe. You never know.
Great piece…other than MOS are there any other ways to capture this? Any ETF’s?
LXU
Hands down one of the best articles I’ve read in a very long time. I really appreciate your insights Craig. Thank you and God bless you.
Craig, thank you very much for this stellar analysis and for keeping your work free for all!!!
Warnings of a potential “Super El Niño” one of the strongest in over a century are being framed as an extreme climate event.
This framing is incomplete.
The Contrarian Insight
El Niño is not just a weather pattern.
It is a multiplier of systemic stress.
Extreme heat is the visible layer.
Beneath it lies a chain reaction across:
agriculture
water systems
energy demand
public health
The Systemic Failure
Current responses to climate events remain:
reactive (post-impact relief)
localized (region-specific responses)
temporary (short-term mitigation)
But El Niño operates differently.
It synchronizes stress across multiple systems at once.
This creates overlapping pressures:
crop failures leading to food price spikes
water shortages impacting both populations and industry
increased energy demand straining grids
The system is not designed for simultaneous shocks.
The Shift in Thinking
Global leaders must move from:
Event response → System preparedness
Climate policy → Infrastructure resilience
Short-term relief → Long-term adaptation design
The goal is no longer to respond to extreme events.
It is to function despite them.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Extreme climate events are no longer rare disruptions.
They are becoming baseline conditions.
Systems designed for stability will increasingly fail under this new reality.
A Realistic Path Forward
Resilience requires:
climate-adaptive infrastructure
integrated water, energy, and food system planning
predictive models tied directly to policy action
global coordination for synchronized risk management
This is not about preventing El Niño.
It is about ensuring systems don’t break when it happens.
Incredible work, the most comprehensive so far, available to someone who is in no way a professional. General Australian ignorance is astonishing; Graig makes up for some of it indeed, spectacularly. Thank you.
Excellent as always. I to recommend anyone who appreciated this thorough analysis to also read Charlie Garcia’s Substack on similar issues across the molecular crisis stemming from gulf infrastructure damage and closure. https://charliepgarcia.substack.com/p/molecular-sovereignty-petrochemical-crisis?r=6k5tw1&utm_medium=ios
This article is a masterpiece.
"Modern crops have been bred under conditions of intensive chemical defence, meaning they carry the yield ambitions of industrial agriculture without the hardiness required in an unprotected ecological contest. Or simply, they can’t grow without them."
Seems like the system was designed for fragility and designed to fail. When nature is manipulated to the point where it is no longer recognizable and unable to yield its cycles and seeds without synthetic inputs it is past the time to admit that the entire dominant approach to agriculture, an industrialized approach, has forgotten the roots of what is actually required to feed and nourish a population both big and small.
The harsh reality of failing agriculture due to lack of fertilizers is undeniable proof that those who have been tasked with managing 'global' scale of food trade were always delusional. Regenerative agriculture practices are scalable and function as closed loop systems.
This is about a shift in consciousness, understanding - farming as stewardship inseparable from ecosystem support. Food used to be the responsibility of all in one way or another. Scaling few operations to feed the many is the inverse of food security. Once food cultivation becomes broken down into equations and measurements of chemicals all that gave the food its vitality is lost. The general state of humanity is seen in this degraded, dishonorable food system. Remove the perceived need for foods from around the world and life becomes sustainable once more. Local agriculture built on local ecosystems and strengths solves many of the tensions in the food systems. Expectations around food supply and food availability are artificial and wildly disconnected from what sustenance actually is here on Earth.
The problem was created and manufactured from the beginning.
I agree with everything you say except that about regenerative agriculture. It has not proved itself at the scale of feeding millions, let alone the extra hundreds we will need to feed within the next couple decades. Now is the time to step outside of the idea that only farms can feed the masses. Rather, self-sufficiency gardens will need to be added to the mix, and they have been scaled to feed scores of millions; check out my Substack, Ultra-Local, Full Circle Self Sufficiency to see why and how this is feasible.
Wow - astonishing analysis — THANK YOU
Thank you Alex, great insights.
Outstanding!
Very impressive work Craig. Many thanks !
Craig…a thoroughly good dispatch and description of the complexity of trading in modern times.
Character defines and constrains a person’s action.
Is the “victim and entitlement” characteristic of modern people that different people of the Middle Ages?
My guess, a mob is still anonymity violentlylooking for someone to blame.
Great analysis.
Great one Craig. Another gem
Not to get biblical, but the headline seems appropriate.
For anyone interested, I restacked a Paul Kingsnorth article about three wild saints and their prophecies. He's the man who had recently wrote a book about reclaiming humanity from the machine.
On a personal note, we also erected a deer fence to keep our vegetables safe. You never know.